The Arab countries, Iran and Turkey are all going through regime or institutional crises which are either more or less open, or are latent. It is true that currently these countries do not all suffer from identical levels of insecurity. Some are considered to be on the verge of disappearance, like Sudan, which could well soon be divided. Others (Turkey, Lebanon and Yemen) are in the process of reforming their constitutions, and Libya is hoping at last to achieve one. Some countries are experiencing a regime crisis, with their institutions blocked by the impending departures of their heads of state. In sum, most of these countries are in crisis, each in its own way and to a different degree.

It may be helpful here to take stock of the evolution of all these regimes that is either in progress or anticipated during the course of this year, so that we can better understand the risks of instability in the region.

After nine months of political impasse Iraq finally has a new government, led by Nuri al-Maliki; however, it is burdened with a series of handicaps which will lead to future difficulties when the attempt is made to share rights and obligations between the different communities and political groupings. If Iraq is to have any hope of stability, the deadline imposed by the forthcoming US withdrawal needs to inspire a move towards regional arrangements involving Turkey, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. This will obviously mean a direct US contribution, at a time when al-Qaeda continues to operate, and in a country where there has also clearly been a radicalisation of part of the Shia community. The priority of the new government will be security (national reconciliation, reinforcement of military and security capability, and preparation for the US withdrawal), and the oil industry and public services (including electricity, transport, and the fight against poverty). All this presupposes improved wealth distribution between Iraqis, and the indispensable rebalancing of the regional relationships within Iraq. The major objectives of government action also include reform of the Constitution, the adoption of a fair electoral law (together with a law governing the activities of political parties), reform of the judicial system, and economic recovery, including the relaunch of oil exports.