Fears of a hybrid warfare against European targets have grown since 2022. A key tactic of hybrid warfare is sabotage, used to target critical infrastructure and supply chains for manufacturing or logistics centers. Notable attacks since 2022 include those against the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the cutting of submarine fiber optic cables in the Baltic Sea and the use of parcel bombs against logistics centers in Leipzig, Germany and Birmingham, UK. Due to their alleged links to Russia, China and, on a larger scale, the war in Ukraine, these attacks have attracted the attention of the media and decision makers. However, they are only the tip of the iceberg in terms of the number of sabotage incidents that have occurred in Europe since 2022, as environmental activists, left-wing, right-wing and religious extremists as well as a growing number of “DIY saboteurs” are resorting to sabotage in an attempt to disrupt the capabilities and resources of their adversaries, and with considerable success.

A key aspect of this phenomenon is the overlap of causes and interests that justify the use of sabotage, ranging from water protection and pacifism to the war in Gaza and women’s rights. This increases the risk of sabotage due to the proliferation of actors and motivations, a dynamic catalyzed by growing political polarization, multiplying crises and declining trust in public institutions. But arguably more impactful is the real and perceived success of attacks, such as those against the Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin on March 5, 2024 or against the French rail network on the opening day of the Olympic Games on July 26, 2024, that fuel the use of sabotage, because sabotage works. This success exposes security flaws, demonstrates the hugely positive cost/benefit ratio of using sabotage and serves as an inspiration thanks to its operational value.

Hence, this article suggests that current trends in sabotage in Europe are fueled by a “mutual reinforcement” effect between radical actors and that the success of sabotage catalyzes its use as a tactic, both by state and non-state actors, for hybrid warfare and political activism. Furthermore, it discusses how these trends can be co-opted and deliberately amplified by third party actors, thus obscuring the perpetrators’ trail while facilitating the spread of the threat beyond historical silos.