The activities of the Wagner Group since 2020 put a new spotlight on the role of private military companies (PMC) in foreign policy. While the use of PMC as ersatz for military presence has been common practice for centuries, the Russian PMC system represents a shift because the security mandate is secondary to its economic and political functions. The system is no longer about PMC self-sustainability but about creating and managing an economic and political infrastructure for the country to which it is linked, thus becoming an agent of policy rather than a security asset.

The “Wagner system” is successful for Russia’s foreign policy, creating a more competitive PMC market as others try to emulate this success, leading to questions about the role of PMC in foreign policy, particularly in Europe. This article proposes an analysis of the “Wagner effect” and the impact of competing PMC systems on Western foreign policy, particularly in terms of security.

The Impact of PMC on Conflict Dynamics

Although associated with mercenaries, the common narrative frames PMC as key contributors to improving security,⁽¹⁾ fueled by counter-terrorism policies used to justify military support and interventions since 2001. Hence, they are no longer presented as mere “guns for hire” but as actors fighting for a just cause. In the Sahel, Russian PMC have been very successful in using this narrative by portraying themselves as more effective than the French and other international security missions in the region.⁽²⁾ In Mali, Russia’s counter-terrorism narrative extends to the tensions between northern independence movements and the government, as the staging of its own “conquest” of Kidal demonstrates, when Malian troops marched in the city in November 2023.⁽³⁾ The message was clear: Wagner and Russia can defeat insurgents and restore peace and stability to a region.