Have you heard of the term ‘path dependency’? By ignoring it, America and NATO have already lost the war in Afghanistan. According to this concept, the present evolution of a country is purportedly affected by previous episodes in its history which have placed it in an orbit from which it is hard to deviate. It took the impetus provided by General David Petraeus from 2007 on (i.e. too late) to wage the type of war that was necessary by taking into account the Pashtoons’ ‘path’. The latter, thirsty for vengeance whenever they are attacked and a people who have already successfully resisted those British and Soviets who dared to tread upon Afghan soil, cannot be vanquished by the force of arms. This small nation of a mere 30 million,⁽¹⁾ securely entrenched in the mountains and united by a strict Islamic faith and the pachtounwali social code, knows that, on its own turf, it is capable of defeating the Americans and other Westerners. The goal of the Pashtoons today is to reconnect with the glorious tradition of their forefathers, which is all more imperative in that the memory of their feats of arms against the Soviets is still fresh in the collective consciousness.

In the face of a merciless vendetta impervious to the suffering and losses endured, withdrawal from the war by NATO with its head held high should be considered while there is still time. Such a withdrawal would take place within the next two to three years, that is, before the net of a general insurrection closes in on the Expeditionary Force.⁽²⁾

A pull-out in the form of a retreat to America or Europe is unthinkable, for the loss in prestige for NATO would be such, particularly in the Muslim world, that it would signal the death knell of that Organization. At the same time, the Western nations would lose their foothold in such crucial strategic areas as the Indian peninsula, the Middle East and Central Asia. Finally, a cessation of activities in the Afpak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) zone would mean abandoning it to a drug trafficking trade which is literally sapping the strength of the West, from Europe—including Russia—to the United States.