With no expansionist strategy, but with a real capacity for creating problems, North Korea, has been driven for two generations by a hard-line politico-military strategy; and to ask Kim Jong Il to renounce his nuclear programme would be like asking Stalin to renounce socialism. Whereas the latter merely occupies a very important place in the history of the Cold War, the actions of the former lead one to question his objectives, and to think hard about Japan’s new political and defence dynamics. In brief, the need above all to understand to what extent this balance is likely to change and make it appear that the winners are the losers in a strategic poker game is far from being a zero-sum game. It must be recognised at once that, for the moment, North Korea holds some very strong cards.

A Complex, Conflict Situation

From provocation to provocation, North Korea, the most firmly closed society in the world, and directed by an iron hand by the same Stalinist oligarchy, uses blackmail to obtain massive materiel aid on the one hand, and security guarantees on the other. If one thinks about the scenario that has been played out in the past, one cannot have the patience to endlessly replay it, and it has to be recognised that a major, geopolitical element has been added: North Korea has become a nuclear power in 2006. Happening in the climate that has prevailed post-11 September 2001, and knowing that the North Koreans are not saints, some comment on this is all the more necessary since the semantics and geopolitics of words, in the case of North Korea, are more than ever matters of history and subjects for confrontation.

The Heart of the Problem

The lack of transparency over North Korea’s military activities considerably blurs any exact ideas of its real capabilities. From a military point of view, the two key questions are the nuclear issue and the ballistic missile programme. A long time ago, the old Soviet Union played a major role in establishing Pyongyang’s nuclear programme. It has been in operation since the 1980s, in large part thanks to civil technology, used for military means, and in particular, the reprocessing facility at Yongbyon. The first confrontation occurred in 1985 when, under Soviet pressure Pyongyang joined the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).