The occupation of Mogadishu by the Ethiopian Army represents an opportunity for reconciliation and reconstruction, but time is short because factors that could cause disintegration are predominant. The simple deployment of a security force and an incantation of the virtues of democracy and good governance cannot compensate for a secular division into fiefdoms, financed by trafficking. On the other hand, the cooperation of the clans can and should be negotiated on the basis of financial advantage and power-sharing, in order to avoid a return to humanitarian crisis within the year, and militant Islam thereafter.