Neither India nor Pakistan has signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.By carrying out tests in 1998, they therefore violated no international agreement but dealt a severe blow to non-proliferation by inciting other countries, including Iran, to develop nuclear weapons. The purpose of India’s strike force is to deter China; Pakistan hopes that with a credible strike force it will be able to deter any major attack by India. The nuclear phenomenon is now firmly entrenched in the minds of all those on the subcontinent, where the arms race continues without let-up on all fronts: witness the many launches of ballistic and cruise missiles by both countries. And now that radical Islamist movements are showing an interest in nuclear weapons systems there is a risk of tipping from the rational to the irrational world, with all its attendant dangers.
Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia
Nuclear proliferation in South Asia cannot be decoupled from the role played by China in this part of the world. The balance of power between India and Pakistan is not bilateral but trilateral, including China. Any Chinese initiative relating to nuclear weapons has repercussions in India, and whatever India does triggers a Pakistani reaction. Both the United States and Russia can also play balancing roles, which further complicates the strategic situation.
The first part of this article will cover the background to proliferation in South Asia and summarise the current situation. The second section will examine the nuclear objectives and doctrines of both India and Pakistan, and the final part will analyse the current nuclear arsenals of the two countries.
Unrelenting Proliferation
India was first to launch a nuclear research programme; Pakistan came later. In both countries, the effort was concentrated on civil uses of atomic energy, but with possible military applications always in the background. India’s defeat by China in 1962 and the first Chinese nuclear test in 1964 were the elements needed to accelerate its bomb development process. For Pakistan, it was the defeat by India in 1971 that triggered its military programme.
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