Is it possible that we have gone from Cold War to Cold Peace? How have we reached this point, and how far along this road is too far? The author attempts to answer these questions, recalling Churchill’s counsel: ‘Never humiliate Russia’.
Cold War and Cold Peace
Less than 20 years after the disappearance of the USSR, relations between the West and Russia have deteriorated badly. Hardly a day goes by without the international press reporting some new area of friction or threats from Moscow couched in terms little changed since the Cold War.
How have we reached this point? How much blame attaches to the leadership in Washington and Moscow? Is it a case of mutually incompatible geopolitical systems? How much does it reflect the electoral campaign debate now under way in Russia? How far along this road is too far?
To try to answer these questions, we must first examine the origins of the current situation. The collapse of the USSR was a major shock to the world geopolitical system. For Washington, it had become possible to establish peaceful and friendly relations with Moscow as soon as Russia adopted a democratic regime–democracies do not wage war against each other–and adopted the liberal economic model. But for that to happen, Russia had to finish with its Empire. It was therefore the duty of the Western world, as well as being in its own interests, to help the new republics born out of the disintegration of the USSR to develop their economies and to adopt democratic regimes. For example, the construction of a fuel transport network would allow the Central Asian republics to channel their production towards Turkey, breaking the Russian monopoly. In the same way, enlarging NATO would progressively extend stability and democracy over the Eurasian continent, which, in the long term, could only be to Russia’s advantage.
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