In a previous article⁽¹⁾ we analysed the rapid growth of ‘subcontinental states’, which meet the twin criteria of a surface area of over 2.5 million sq. km and a population of more than 100 million. Their rapid development in this first decade of the twenty-first century was, with hindsight, already apparent during the last third of the last century.

In this article, we will attempt to predict the results of their impressive recent past and astonishing present over the decades to come—a more difficult exercise than discerning the trends of the decades past. To do this, as before, we will base our analysis on the composite indicator of power (CIP) method, which combines a macroeconomic statistic, gross national product (GNP) or, failing that, gross domestic product (GDP), to a demographic figure, the numerical size of the population, with the accepted weighting of 100 to 18. This indicator establishes a comparison for a state or a group of states with a reference state, whose indicator is used for comparison purposes and is set at a constant value.

In this article we have selected the five current subcontinental states (Brazil, China, India, Russia and the United States) with France as the reference state. The period examined will cover the 45 years running from 2006 to 2050, a point beyond which the future becomes too indistinct to be the object of any useful prediction.