The new strategic function of ‘knowledge and anticipation, including intelligence’ is currently being formalised in the new White Paper; this requirement has been articulated for many years and has already been the subject of fruitful methodological research within the Ministry of Defence (MOD). Strategic anticipation involves the exploration of future strategic situations and is undertaken prior to any political or military decision-making process. It demands specific expertise and skills that amount to a new vocation. The first stage is to understand what anticipation involves; it now remains to apply this expertise to the real world of the MOD, to push for its adoption within an interdepartmental framework and to link anticipation and operational planning—to move on from conceiving possible futures to the implementation of a strategy or a decision—and in a way actually prevent crises. (The opinions expressed are his alone)
Knowledge and Anticipation
The use of prospective analysis and anticipation in strategic decision-making emerged as a requirement within the Ministry of Defence (MOD) at the start of the twenty-first century. The diversity of situations encountered, the range and extent of responses to crises and the complexity of the effects that needed to be generated within an increasingly interdepartmental framework now demanded not only a global and adaptive approach but also an ability to anticipate so that options could be prepared and action taken in both a timely and effective manner, including preventive measures wherever possible.
The then Chief of the Defence Staff (CEMA) demanded access to a wide range of modern tools and methods that were as rigorous as possible, enabling him to acquire an overview of increasingly complex situations and to understand their dynamics in order to be able to suggest the most appropriate solutions. This meant a reinforcement of the role of CEMA as government adviser. Through the work being undertaken on the new 2008 White Paper, a new strategic function is emerging around knowledge and anticipation, thereby validating the initial approach that linked ‘knowledge in order to understand’ and ‘understanding in order to forecast’.
Beyond Strategic Analysis, Futurology
The challenge now is to go beyond ‘conventional’ situational analysis and to develop the means to answer the inevitable questions about developments in the situation over a range of time-scales as well as about the players and their individual strategies. At this level of analysis, it is vital to be able to help the authorities define their strategic and military objectives, and to formulate that which, with political agreement, will emerge as a ‘desired end-state’. The choice of a battle plan must be made based on assessment criteria covering margins of manoeuvre, risks and opportunities, not only in the military and operational fields but also the economic, diplomatic and political domains so that military operations can best be incorporated in a largely interdepartmental environment.
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