In this essay, the author exposes the Central Asian trap which risks snaring NATO forces by virtue of their dependence on logistic supply. A generalised ‘Afghanisation’ of Central Asia is developing along two lines—drugs and terrorism—which are mutually supporting. Hope of stabilisation of the area seems well and truly compromised.
Afghanistan: Deadly Danger!
Unlike Afghanistan, which for the moment has no economic value, there are high stakes in Turkestan, as much for its mineral wealth as for its geostrategic position. Its hydrocarbon reserves (gas and oil), locally known as ‘the tears of the devil’, although only partially exploited, have already given rise to huge exports to China, Russia and Europe, which for each of these powers are of vital interest. It is the same story for a variety of resources which, like gold, cotton, uranium, metals and rare earth products are highly prized on today’s raw materials markets.
The geostrategic importance of Central Asia, described by an earlier generation of geo-politicians as the heartland, the pivot of the universe, is a extension of that of Afghanistan. Like the Afghan bastion, the Touran, or land of the Turks, exists on the fringes of Iran, China and Russia.(1) It is fairly close to such sensitive regions as the Persian Gulf, the Indian peninsula and the Caucasus. For Afghanistan’s production of drugs, notably heroin—known as ‘the tears of Allah’—Central Asia constitutes the traffic hub towards Russia and beyond, to Europe and even the Far East. The crucial link in the trafficking chain, the link that must be broken, lies in Turkestan.
Another less well-known geostrategic aspect of the region, which is highly significant for us, concerns the Northern Distribution Network (NDN) that has recently supplanted Pakistan as the supply base for the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF). Since 2009 non-military cargo (fuels, rations, equipment and materials) have been supplied to the expeditionary corps via a road and rail route starting from Riga in Latvia, crossing Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to Termez. Another route goes from West to East via Turkey or the Georgian port of Poti to Baku in Azerbaijan and then by the Caspian to Aktau in Kazakhstan, or Turkmenbashi in Turkmenistan.(2)
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