The world has changed markedly in the 17 years since the end of the Cold War. Power bases have shifted, peace dividends have been taken and defence forces have had to counter new threats and risks that have emerged. We have also entered an era shaped by the rapid globalisation of every aspect of human activity, by accelerated technological development and by the prospect of geostrategic changes of unprecedented scale and complexity. Current trends suggest that climate change, demographic shifts and increased competition for resources of all kinds will lead to crisis, confrontation and conflict. These threaten global, regional and national prosperity, stability and security, and may strengthen the hand of those who oppose the liberal trading values of the international order on which we depend. Accordingly nations like ours will have to manage the consequences of crises and shocks, both natural and man-made, in a geopolitical landscape characterised by volatility, complexity and surprise.

Prospects

Three things are clear to me early in my time as First Sea Lord. First, like many other nations, Britain is pre-eminently a maritime nation whose people will continue to rely on the unhindered use of the sea for their security, prosperity and wellbeing. Second, the world will continue to face an uncertain, rapidly changing and competitive global environment during the early decades of the twenty-first century. Third, resources will remain tight in the face of competing demands on public expenditure.

Britain and the Sea

The significance of the first point is often lost on many people, not just in the United Kingdom, and we must encourage anyone who wears a naval uniform to help get the message across to the public on the importance of the sea to us all. In these days of cheap and rapid worldwide air travel there is little real understanding of how the goods we see for sale in the High Street get there. It is easy to understand why. People don’t see hundreds of ships crowding ports any more, and fishing fleets and navies are much smaller than they used to be. Today’s merchant ships operate out of a few remote sites and the number of people who actually go to work at sea is much smaller than 50 years ago. Yet the maritime sector in the United Kingdom still employs more than a quarter of a million people directly and has an annual turnover in excess of €55 billion. We continue to export more than 25 per cent of everything that we produce and, while some of our trade comes in and out by air or flows through the Channel Tunnel, the vast majority—550 million tonnes and over 95 per cent by volume–is still carried by sea.