Iran is keeping on course and its nuclear programme is progressing under the umbrella of a strategy of asymmetric ‘non-nuclear’ deterrence, which the Iranian leadership considers sufficiently credible to protect the Islamic Republic from an American, Israeli or, now, French attack. Israel is within range of Iranian missiles.⁽¹⁾ Israel is also under a permanent threat of a resumption of violence in the Palestinian territories infiltrated by Tehran via Hamas in particular, and from Lebanon via Hezbollah, in spite of the presence of a UN interposition force. To the Iranians, the security of the American forces in Iraq now depends largely on the goodwill of the Iranian services and Pasdarans present in the country. Also from Tehran’s point of view, American warships and their installations in Bahrein and the Gulf region are within range of Iranian missiles. The Iranians can also count on the Hezbollah infiltrated into the Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrein and Kuwait) and into other countries friendly to Washington (Jordan, Turkey) to destabilise the security environment in these countries. Finally, the Iranian leaders are nowadays aware, at a time when the price of oil is breaking new records, that their ability to cause trouble on the energy front and for the global economy is increasingly obvious to the West.

Iran thus feels itself to be protected by its ‘safety belts’, to which can be added the renewal of Russia’s interest in the region, which works to the advantage of the Islamic Republic in the present context. The West is attempting to destabilise Iran’s strategy, and France has added its weight to this, in spite of the threats which this poses to its interests, with the prospects of benefiting both on the geopolitical and economic fronts. On 22 September, the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad spoke of a ‘psychological war’ against his country.

The ‘declaration of war’ on Iran by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner on the eve of his visit to Moscow, following the firm warning given by President Nicolas Sarkozy in Tehran at the annual ambassadors conference, has raised speculation on the real risks of an open confrontation between the Islamic Republic and the international community. More particularly, the less-than-diplomatic tone adopted by the head of French diplomacy raises serious questions on prospects for the development of Franco-Iranian relations over the coming months. All the more so in that the French President pursued a particularly hard line with respect to Tehran during his televised comments on 20 September, and his speech to the UN General Assembly on 25 September in New York, while avoiding any mention of war.