The effects of global warming are particularly noticeable in the far North, and the International Polar Year (2007-08) is very relevant in this respect. If all the consequences, both fortunate and unfortunate, are still far from being recognised, this new state of affairs is awakening claims or ambitions (continental shelf, exclusive economic zones, natural resources and fishery, etc.). In due course it will redefine power politics, spheres of influence and maritime routes. Canada, the United States, Denmark, Norway and Russia are at the centre of the geopolitical equation. So how can one anticipate these possible sources of insecurity?
The Arctic Revisited
The strategic importance of the far North continues to evolve, primarily in summertime: the melting of the ice pack will henceforth be a key factor in regional geopolitics. One could perhaps also say international, not least because of the considerable stakes involved in a number of important areas for an appreciable number of nations.(1)
First of all, the facts. Scientists believe that between 1979 and 2005, the ice pack lost about 25 per cent of its surface area (from 7.8 to 5.9 million km2). The American National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) confirmed in September 2007 that summer ice covered no more than 4.24 million km2 (5.32 million in 2005). Satellite mapping is indisputable. And the trend is irreversible: not only is the ice pack melting, but the permanent ice cap is retreating. In 2003, NASA admitted that ‘the Arctic [has lost] nearly 10 per cent of its permanent covering of ice every decade since 1980’. In addition the thickness of the ice cap may have decreased by 42 per cent during the last 50 years.(2) A US-Canadian report issued in 1997 showed that in the Beaufort Sea (north of Alaska), the water was warmer and less salty. It is assumed that in 2050, perhaps even in 2030, no summer pack ice will exist.
This is truly of the utmost importance:
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