Understood as an intentional event, more or less unexpected, affecting the State’s defence and security, strategic surprise is never so close as when certain conditions all obtain: failure to identify weak signals; an analytical capability restrained by a predetermined way of thinking that virtually excludes other rationalities; lack of moral preparation among the decision-makers and the population; and rigidity of national organisation. France will only be able to anticipate surprise and regain the initiative if it restores a certain strategic depth. We need to do three things now: inform the authorities and forge national cohesion, reestablish some depth in our strategic analysis, and bolster our capability for decision and action.
Strategic Surprise
East wind, rain. This coded message heralded one of the most remarkable acts of war in the twentieth century, the attack on the American base at Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941. This tactical surprise led to strategic developments, from the US entry into the war against Japan to the atomic strikes in 1945. Sixty years later, on 11 September 2001, another form of surprise stunned the entire world.
On setting up the committee to draft the Livre Blanc (Defence White Paper), on 23 August 2007, the French president asked for proposals to be put to him on an updated overall national defence and security strategy which would guarantee the interests of the nation, should a strategic surprise threaten them.
Strategic surprise concerns events with little or no notice, yet having a significant impact which shakes the very foundations of the State. Using this broad definition as a starting point, this study looks principally at intentional surprise having an impact upon defence and security. The combination of the current worldwide geopolitical situation, globalisation in general, movements of people and information systems, is fertile ground for launching a strategic surprise.
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