‘Want of Robots Would be Found Stamped on my Heart!’ —Naval Warfare in the Age of Robotics (T 1677)
Preliminary note: After spending days searching for the French fleet in the Mediterranean Sea before finding it at the Battle of the Nile (1798), admiral Nelson is alleged to have written: ‘Was I to die this moment, want of frigates would be found stamped on my heart!’ Paine Lincoln, The Sea and Civilization: A Maritime History of the World (New York: Vintage Books, 2013), p. 489.
One hardly needs to be a prophet to see that the shift of naval warfare into its fifth age, the age of robotics, has begun and is accelerating.(1),(2) Let us therefore project ourselves into 2040 to see how proliferating robots will affect not only the character of war at sea but perhaps its very nature.
Back to the Future—The Naval Playground in 2040
In 2024, robots are already present: it is enough to observe the Black Sea and the Red Sea to see their increasing use in all naval confrontations, and most combat navies plan to have a significant ratio of robots in their orders of battle—above and under water.(3) However, we are only at the beginning of wider use of robotics, currently with machines that operate alongside humans, in limited numbers and with a limited level of autonomy.
Fast forward to 2040: things are significantly different, in quantity and quality. Robots have proliferated and are no longer the exception, but the rule. With the benefits of advancements in cognitive autonomy fuelled by progress in artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing and enhancement in endurance, robots are now a constant presence across vast maritime spaces, even during times of peace. Sailors routinely come across them operating on the open sea and have become adept at coexisting with them.(4) At platform level, every warship, including the most basic, routinely operates robots as force multipliers.(5) Fleet structures have been modified: alongside major combat units crewed by several hundred sailors, new units have appeared composed entirely of robots—albeit with a skeleton crew of humans who program or pilot them remotely—and navies have moved from a man-machine juxtaposition to a true symbiosis between robots and humans.(6) Task Forces in 2040 are therefore structured differently from those in 2024: the US Navy’s Task Force 59 currently offers a taste of what is to come.(7) Above all, robots are present in large quantities, whether sophisticated, such as Unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAV) or low-cost, such as kamikaze drones. Swarms, though theoretical today, have become a reality—naval actions no longer involve a few dozen drones piloted remotely, as in the Black Sea or the Bab-El-Mandeb today, but hundreds of drones, operating in a coordinated and autonomous manner.
It seems that 2040 marks the threshold of the future age of hyperwar.(8)
So What? The Changing Face of Naval Warfare
It is striking that the trend in 2040 is towards greater aggressiveness, for three reasons. First, because the decision-making autonomy of robots, based on AI, produces combat decisions focused on the success of the mission at any cost, without the risk analysis and caution of human brains.(9) Second, because faced with a robot whose loss does not entail any human consequences, the use of force is disinhibited. (10) Third, because of the absence of physical or moral fatigue from the machines. A century ago, the French Admiral Daveluy declared that it’s the most stubborn who wins. Robots are without doubt the most stubborn.(11) In general terms, the naval battles of 2040 are fiercer, since there is no respite in the attacks: Admiral Halsey’s motto Hit Hard, Hit Fast, Hit Often! is the driving force of naval warfare.
There is far greater emphasis on offence, a hallmark of any naval combat situation. Conversely, the emergence of robots makes defence at sea even more costly. Since the age of sail, defence at sea has been technically and economically demanding. However, defending against swarms of drones raises the new challenge of dealing with saturation effectively and at a reasonable cost. Hence, by 2040, defensive systems have evolved.(12) The biggest consequence, though, is that the tactician seeks more than ever to attack effectively first to avoid an increasingly delicate defensive posture.(13) It is more natural for him to do so, since the increased numbers of assets available to him, more broadly the mass effect, allows him to absorb tactical errors more easily.(14)
Tactics evolve continuously, so tacticians have to adapt continuously. The increased mass, and the superhuman performances that autonomous robots are able to achieve therefore boost the creativity of tactical leaders involved in naval warfare. In 2040, many robots are capable of near-perfect coordination, alternating phases of dispersion and concentration at unprecedented speeds and levels of precision. Swarms could also make encirclement possible, something currently almost unachievable at sea. The effect of mass also arises from the learning capacity of robots: they learn from their actions and can share information with each other immediately to improve performance, without incubation time.(15)
Tactically, two paradoxes mark robot-dominated naval warfare.
First, the persistence of surveillance coexists with surprise: on one hand the outfit of sensors carried by robots capable of maintaining permanent surveillance of the battlefield reinforces the impression of transparency of the battle space, but on the other hand the ability to surprise an opponent is increased tenfold.(16) How can this be? Because the complexity of the tactical environment makes it more difficult to understand, because machines are highly sensitive to deception and poisoning, because machines offer renewed dilution capability by virtue of their proliferation and, above all, because robots have a rationality that is not that of humans. We therefore see better, but the fog is thicker. Whilst ‘sensing’ is easier, ‘making sense’ is another matter. It is as if warfighters were driving through fog with headlights blazing.
Second, technical performance is optimised but also more susceptible to instability, creating the paradox of the cliff edge effect. The performance of robots inherently relies heavily on technology, be it in the quality of data (the lifeblood of AI) from their sensors or in the links required for their operation, such as remote control by humans or coordination between robots.(17)
However, by 2040, these two foundations are more fragile than ever, so it is common in conflict to witness naval forces swiftly transitioning from a position of tactical dominance to complete paralysis. In the era of robotics, tactical instability prevails.
The primacy of robots in naval warfare gives renewed importance to the role of humans. In the age of human-machine teaming, the rare and precious part is the human being. There are fewer sailors, but they are better educated and trained, and difficult to replace. In more aggressive naval combat the challenge is therefore to preserve sailors’ lives, which implies distancing them even further from the heat of combat, which in turn further enhances the role of robots.
A Revolution in Human Affairs?
There remains the perennial question of the possible change in the nature of naval warfare under the influence of proliferating robots. On one hand, it is clear that the proliferation of robots reinforces the fundamentally fast, destructive and decisive character of naval combat.(18) In the realm of robots, these three historical characteristics of naval combat are indeed maximised. The age of the robot is, in a sense, the climax of naval warfare.
But, on the other hand, the ebb of human emotions from the battlefield has mixed consequences. We mentioned the aggressiveness of autonomous machines that think and act differently from humans, yet, more broadly, after decades of technological impact on the physical dimensions of warfare, the rise of autonomy bolstered by AI is now influencing its cognitive aspects—specifically, the perceptions of warfare by the combatants involved.(19) As long as man is in the loop, naval warfare will remain a human affair. But, in 2040, perhaps a threshold will have been reached where certain human resources, historically predominant in the conduct of naval warfare, will have given way to other factors: crew morale (which can tilt everything in one direction or the other), human weakness and, above all, man’s ability to deal with the complexity of the real world. The genetics of naval warfare, firmly established since the age of sail, look set to be modified.
Conclusion
Lastly, when scanning the horizon of naval warfare in 2040, one aspect stands out: the crying need for substantial intellectual investment in a competitive era where the task for warriors will have shifted from solving puzzles to solving mysteries.(20)
March 2024
(1) Five successive ages of naval warfare can be distinguished: the age of sail (17th century – end of the 19th century), the age of gun (end of the 19th century – 1930’s), the age of aircraft (1930’s – 1960’s), the age of missile (1960’s – now), and the age of robotics (now – future). Lavernhe Thibault & Corman François-Olivier, Vaincre en mer au XXIe siècle – La tactique au 5e âge du combat naval (Paris: Éditions des Equateurs, 2023).
(2) The deliberately encompassing term ‘robotics’ designates all systems ranging from total autonomy to systems controlled remotely by humans, including systems programmed by humans. The term robot therefore includes the notion of drone.
(3) The US Navy, for example, is aiming for a ratio of 60% of unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) in its aircraft inventory, and a ratio of 40% of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) in its inventory of surface warships.
(4) For instance, in 2040, the 1972 International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (ColRegs) will most probably have evolved to integrate USVs’ proliferation on the oceans. Brennan Suffern, ‘Collision Regulations Need to be Updated for USVs’, Proceedings, Vol. 150/2/1,452, February 2024.
(5) Zeberlein Jeff, ‘Every Ship a Carrier: How Artificial Intelligence Can Revolutionize the Air and Sea Domains’, Proceedings, Vol. 150/3/1,453, March 2024.
(6) Attack aircraft carriers, with thousands of sailors on board, will most probably operate at sea across the 21st century.
(7) Cooper Brad & Singer Peter, ‘Tests in Fifth Fleet a Bridge to Future’, Proceedings, Vol. 148/6/1,432, June 2022.
(8) Allen John R. & Husain Amir, ‘On Hyperwar’, Proceedings, Vol. 143/7/1,373, July 2017.
(9) Scharre Paul, Four Battlegrounds—Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence (New York: Norton, 2023), p. 269.
(10) Recent examples illustrate this disinhibition: Iranian firing against an American drone in 2019 in the Strait of Hormuz, collision manoeuvre of Russian Su-27 against an American MQ-9 drone in the Black Sea in 2023, and regular firing of surface to air missiles by Western destroyers against Houthi drones in the Red Sea in 2024.
(11) Daveluy René, Réminiscences, volume II (Paris: Économica, 1991), p. 609.
(12) Harper Sean, ‘The Tower and the Hive: Man-Machine Teaming in 2030’, Proceedings, Vol. 147/11/1,425, November 2021.
(13) According to Wayne P. Hughes, ‘the tactical maxim of all naval battles is attack effectively first’. Hughes Wayne P. & Girrier Robert P., Fleet tactics and naval operations, Third edition (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2018).
(14) Since the age of the gun, there have been two great ‘tactical shock absorbers’ in naval warfare: the number of fighting units and their respective ‘staying power’ (that is to say their ability to withstand hits). In Lavernhe T. & Corman F.-O., op. cit., p. 252-253.
(15) ‘This is the equivalent of having the most qualified veteran instantly transfer his or her experience and expertise to troops who have never been in battle’. Allen J.R. & Husain A., op. cit.
(16) Tangredi Sam J., ‘Sun Tzu versus AI’, Proceedings, Vol. 147/5/1,419, May 2021.
(17) Legaspi Albert, Mah Jeff & Hszieh Stepanie, ‘Communicating at the speed of war’ in Tangredi S.J. & Galdorisi George, AI at War—How Big Data, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Are Changing Naval Warfare (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2021), p. 191.
(18) Lavernhe T. & Corman F.-O., op. cit., pp. 222-225.
(19) Scharre P., op. cit., p. 265.
(20) ‘In 2023, mysteries abound […] [but] a 50-year legacy of solving puzzles, not mysteries, has created the valley of death’. Lewis David H., ‘Build This, Not That’, Proceedings, Vol. 149/10/1,448, October 2023.