Tokyo and Beijing are multiplying their gestures of goodwill to ease their relations. Yet this good-tempered diplomacy that Beijing mixes, without much success, with positive gestures regarding Taipei, will not be enough–far from it–to overcome recurring rivalry in North-East Asia. This goes to the heart of the rivals’ sense of identity and the way they see their place and role in the region. All the indicators suggest that neither Beijing, Tokyo nor Washington, even less Taipei, are ready to make the changes and concessions necessary to calm the tensions that still exist in the region despite the ending of the Cold War.
China, Japan and Taiwan: the Tensions Behind the Smiles
Following the relaxation of the Korean crisis, the Year of the Pig has begun in China with a double charm offensive aimed at Taiwan and Japan. The notion of seducing Taiwan with attractive economic bait is an old one and has lost none of its force. Efforts towards Japan are more recent, but they illustrate the determination of the Beijing authorities to change the style of their relations with Tokyo.
Although it is true that these initiatives can create a calmer atmosphere, they are not enough to eliminate the causes of friction in the region.
Japan, Taiwan and the United States at the Centre of Chinese strategy
Seemingly, relations with Taiwan and Tokyo are not in the same class. The former are considered by Beijing as an internal affair; the latter belong to grand strategy, where historical grievances, deep physical and moral wounds and rivalries over cultural and strategic leadership in North-East Asia play a part. However, in many respects the ramifications of the two questions interact.
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